Wednesday 2 October 2013

Fundamentally flawed Manchester City face huge task to regain the Premier League title.






This blog may seem conveniently timed. On the heels of City's second league defeat of the season, and just hours before they are quite possibly beaten by the European champions Bayern Munich, it seems easy to take a pop at Manuel Pellegrini's men safe in the knowledge the ammunition comes from the weekend, and may be backed up further tonight. In truth though, these are thoughts i've had for some time. Initially instilled by the away defeat to Cardiff City, and out and out confirmed by the lackluster win over Hull City at the Etihad Stadium a week later. Though a wonder goal from Yaya Toure and a final score of 3-0 looked great against Czech minnows Victoria Pilzen, the highly uncomfortable first half showing was where the phrase "Fundamentally flawed" first came to mind. This City team, despite the significant summer signings still looks very similar to the one Roberto Mancini was in charge of, and has even developed a few new flaws since "the engineer" took charge to replace him.

After waltzing past a very poor Newcastle team 4-0 on the opening day, City looked very much like Mancini's 2011/12 City that claimed the premier league title. They moved the ball quickly, sliced the geordie's to shreds and may have even scored more, people soon began saying they were the early season favorites. All this seemed changed a week later when a Kompany-less City went down 3-2 at newly promoted Cardiff. That game looked far more like Mancini's 2012/13 City. They suffered from a lack of width, pace and precision. As West Brom's recent defeat of Man United at Old Trafford has shown, most big teams don't like the "smaller" sides coming at them in games, having the ability to push back and test their opponents at the back. City are not like this though. They want nothing more than a team to have a go, as they know they will more than likely beat them on the counter when sides vacate their midfield, allowing space for the likes of Toure, David Silva and Sergio Aguero. What they don't like, and never did under Mancini, were teams who "parked the bus". Cardiff put 10 men behind the ball, squeezed City all over the pitch, and collapsed into a narrow shell, forcing City into wider area's to look for room, something many of their players "Silva, Toure, Samir Nasri" simply don't like to do. Of course on the day they gave away three poor goals, from set plays but ultimately it was their lack of pace and attacking threat that allowed Cardiff to grow in confidence, and bring their crowd into the game. While it took Spurs until the 90th minute to find a winner at the Cardiff City Stadium, their pace and verve forced their host's back, and gave them little encouragement to seek a winner of their own. City never achieved this, they allowed Cardiff into the game with lackluster passing and moving, even after going one up, and were punished for it.

A week later Steve Bruce brought Hull City to Eastlands where, after Newcastle's dismantling  most expected Pellegrini's men to brush their second newly promoted oppoenent in two games to the side, and send them home on the receiving end of a hefty scoreline. For most of this game, nothing could have been further from the truth. Pellengrini's inclusion of two strikers, as well as Yaya Toure and new signing Fernandinho in a 4-4-2 formation saw City out maned in the middle of the park, and struggled to get the sort of ball retention that would sap the Tiger's legs and will power. Instead they poured forward with Tom Huddlestone enjoying the kind of freedom no one in sky blue was, setting up chances which, on another day, would have led to the goals that created and up set. The 4-4-2 also brings problems for another of City's new boys, Jesus Navas. The Spaniard was signed to fill the void Adam Johnson had left from the title winning side, and that Scott Sinclair had so clearly failed to do. He was brought in to create width in such games as that defeat to Cardiff, to force defense's to cover him in wider area's, creating space for Silva, Aguero, Toure and Nasri, or have him punish them with his crossing if they didn't  Mancini's preferred 4-2-3-1 formation would see Navas naturally further and wider up the field, where he's more dangerous. It would leave him with far less defensive responsibilities due to the holding midfielders behind him. That formation also helps Samir Nasri due to its versatility  he can cut more into the middle allowing his full back to over lap and provide width for him, both of these were on display when City used a far more 4-2-3-1 looking formation against rivals United, where Nasri set up Alexsander Kolarov to cross for Aguero, and Navas stayed wide to cross for Nasri himself. 

The most recent defeat to Aston Villa was out and out poor game management from City. Having, by all accounts dominated their hosts' in the first half, they only took a one goal advantage into half time. After briefly losing that, an Eden Dzeko header re gave them a lead they should never have lost. While the remaining goal were scored, direct from a free kick and after poor defending from a long hoof upfield, you cant help but think Gareth Barry, an almost ever present in City's title winning season, would have brought a calming influence to things by putting his foot on the ball and keeping his side in control. 4-4-2 with Fernandinho and Toure in the middle doesn't provide this, both are better athletes, made to run and move than they are calming passer's and their failure to deal with Villa's far less expensive midfield contributed to the sides downfall at Villa Park, even if not directly on the late goals that swung the game.

You'll notice spared from criticism is England number one Joe Hart. In the last two seasons has he been the best goal keeper in the world as he arguably was from 2010 to 2012? No. But considering he has kept more clean sheets than any other premier league keeper in each of the last three season's, especially behind an often changed side defense last season, he is still more than good enough for them to win a title with. His form his not City's problem, if you even still beleave it's his. A better keeper, if their is one, would far from guarantee City European or domestic success due to the flaws that are ahead of him on the pitch.

City may well beat Bayern Munich tonight. Bayern aren't top of the Bundesliga, and they have shown one or two teething pains going from a treble winning season under Jupp Heynckes to the trademark methods of Pep Guardiola. City are up and down this season, if they show up and play well, they are fully capable of three points tonight, but this shouldn't cover over the cracks that should be glaringly obvious by now. If they don't address these issues they are doomed to repeat the same failing's that have already cost them twice this season. Six games in, this does not look like a great Premier league team. One that can expect to fight for the title right til the end. At the moment they look temperamental  talented but not always disiplined. Capable of brilliance but not sure how to sustain in. I still beleave, as i do about Manchester United, that City are better than Spurs and Arsenal, leagues ahead of the likes of Liverpool and Everton who they find themselves behind. Teams i feel will fall away fail to sustain a challenge through the winter, and past February and March and into April and May, when it really matters. But while you can not win the title in September and October, you can lose it. If City fall too many points behind now, even when the others presumably struggle during the winter months it may only be enough to draw them back into the pack for the sprint to the finish, where anything can happen. City can win the league,  the worst they have any rite to finish is probably third, but they have to be consistently good to achieve that, and at the moment, they just don't appear built to sustain the type of performance necessary to leave talented but also flawed sides from North London behind. I criticised Mancini's team for being a "nice little team" at times last year. Nice little teams are nice, but do you know what they do? Play nice little football, and get beat. They look a nice little side at the minute, fun to watch, but perhaps incapable of that grind it out ugly style needed to win the league, they will have to find it, or face another summer of major overhaul next season.

Richard Lewis